The Expert Economy
By Gaelen Hendrickson, Avi Gandhi and Ishan Sinha.
Pre-internet learning was a largely formal affair. Beyond primary and secondary education, people typically learned new skills through apprenticeships, trade schools, and company programs, while upskilling usually involved going back to school for a graduate degree. Even learning in one’s personal life mirrored a similar degree of formality – consumers might go to a library, call certified advisors, or speak to a salesperson in-store to learn anything from how to get a mortgage to which vacuum to purchase.
5G streaming knowledge in everyone’s pockets has helped democratize learning. 86% of YouTube’s US viewers use YouTube to learn and 91% of people have watched an explainer video. Topics from mixology to financial modeling can be learned from free content on blogs, social media, video platforms, and other online resources.
Smartphone cameras and content distribution platforms have made it possible for people to produce content without specialized equipment or television deals. This has helped fuel the Creator Economy, which includes 200 million people globally today. How did we get there?
The Evolution of the Creator Economy
If we define Experts as a subset of Creators, it’s useful to first understand the evolution of the broader Creator economy. The Creator Economy emerged from three trends:
- Content production democratization – Affordable tools like smartphones and iMovie dramatically reduced content production costs. For example, the iPhone 3GS launched in 2009 for $199, while Hollywood’s RED cameras cost $40,000+. Anyone with a smart phone could now shoot and share video.
- Content distribution democratization – Platforms like Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok allowed users to share content and reach audiences through algorithm-driven feeds, allowing internet Creators to build a following and influence.
- Monetization and democratization – Initially, YouTube’s ad revenue-sharing was one of the only ways for creators to monetize online. As the 2010’s progressed, Patreon and Teespring allowed Creators to monetize directly, regardless of audience size.
Goldman Sachs estimates that the Creator Economy will reach $480 billion by 2027. Being a Creator can now be a viable career, with some creators reporting average expected annual revenues over $100,000 and median expected revenue of $50,000, higher than the US median personal income. Perhaps relatedly, in a survey offering children a choice between becoming a YouTuber, a teacher, a professional athlete or an Astronaut, 29% of American children responding chose Vlogger/YouTuber, while only 11% picked astronaut.
As another possible result of this boom, the internet is increasingly noisy – 167 million TikTok videos are watched each minute. Anyone can write a blog post or make a short-form video regardless of their knowledge, experience or truthfulness – in fact, low-quality, untrustworthy content is structurally incentivized. Social media algorithms reward user engagement, liking and content sharing, oftentimes leading to misinformation.
Generative AI images, text, hallucinations, and deep fakes may exacerbate these problems. Google recently published a research paper looking at 200 examples of AI being misused to manipulate or defraud people online:
Whereas a few years ago if a reputable brand or source surfaced to you on social media, you usually viewed it as trustworthy; these days consumers seem much more skeptical. We believe that consumers will look more to actual people that they trust for content, advice, and guidance and increasingly turn away from mainstream channels. “Actual people” – or in other words, creators. Instead of talking broadly about a subject, we are seeing more and more creators focus on a specific subject. We anticipate that we are entering a phase of creation and distribution of expertise.
The Rise of the Expert Economy
We define experts as thought leaders within specific niches whose reputations are built on relevant social proof (experience, credentials, etc.) and the value of the knowledge they share on their subject matter. This subject matter could be professional (e.g. coding, sales) or lifestyle-focused (e.g. fashion, fitness). Experts solve their target audience’s pain points through educational content and products, which they can monetize along the way.
We believe that expertise can be both objective and/or subjective.
In a social media-driven world, almost anyone, regardless of their official credentials (degrees, accreditations, etc.), can share what knowledge they have with the public. Doing so allows people with knowledge to build trust over time with prospective customers. Not only that, but each of us who has done a particular task or skill will know more about that task or skill than someone who has not. In that regard, expertise is subjective relative to the prospective customer. For example, if you make delicious ribs, you could be an Expert to someone who has never barbequed.
Everyone is an Expert in something to someone.
We’ve observed that one of the keys to monetizing expertise is being able to convey that expertise in a compelling and authentic way to build trust with prospective customers – and that’s where Experts collide with the Creator Economy to make the Expert Economy.
On top of this, we also expect more people to turn to online monetization of their expertise given certain macro-economic developments. For example, over half of Gen Zers and millenials have a side hustle, and stagnant wages, rising living costs, and soaring education expenses should catalyse this movement.
As a result, we believe that new platforms will be built around Experts, giving them different modalities to distribute their knowledge, earning income while educating their audience.
What are we thinking about?
Looking forward, we believe the largest businesses built in the service of Experts will be driven by new technologies and business models, and, as a result, we are thinking deeply about the following:
What is the next iteration of Expert-driven commerce?
- How will Experts build communities and sell goods online? Will existing commerce models be disrupted by new business models and platforms that let Experts monetize their communities beyond directly selling to them?
What will the true value of generative AI be to help Experts build businesses?
- Generative AI is already helping supercharge content production for Experts. What are the applications of generative AI beyond content creation that provide true value to Experts? Separately, do consumers want to interact with a generative AI persona of an expert?
How will Experts translate their influence from online to offline?
- Will in-person events be a significant part of Expert businesses? What new platforms will disrupt event organization, production, and monetization via AI, communities, and other emerging technology and business models?
How to get in touch?
Please reach out if you are addressing the above questions or have similar ones – we want to hear from you!