Where conflicts are determined by logistics, startups are innovating to win
By Graham Littlehale and Chris Morales
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, its massive tank column reached the capital Kyiv in less than one week—then stalled just 30km outside. After days of waiting for resupply, those soldiers retreated and with them went Russia’s hopes for a sudden coup.
Military experts have noted this isn’t a one-off anecdote—it can be emblematic of how real conflicts transpire. Though they aren’t frequently mentioned, logistics and materiel often play important roles. During the 2000s conflicts in the Middle East, approximately 52% of casualties occurred from hostile attacks during resupply missions, even with total ground and air dominance. Logistics may not always decide conflicts, but they are a key factor, because at the end of the day, “all our operations are underwritten by logistics,” as the Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall has said.
And now, logistics are growing more difficult and future conflicts could occur in more inhospitable regions, against more advanced adversaries using technology to disrupt supply lines from afar. This is why the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) is actively identifying its innovation gaps in logistics, many of which we believe startups are best positioned to fill.
Logistics are growing more difficult
If we think of logistics as the backbone of an armed force, the U.S. military’s is particularly long and twisted. It consumes nearly 270,000 barrels of oil per day and employs nearly three million personnel who maintain approximately 225,000 army vehicles, 280 naval ships, 14,000 aircraft, and 800 bases in 70 countries. It requires a beehive of C17s delivering fuel to troops and fleets of massive vessels whose sole job is to supply Navy ships.* Such complexity and dependence can create a rigid force with many logistics tails, or areas of exposure, with the potential to invite attacks.
Successful military capabilities are underwritten by assured access to … energy. – U.S. Department of Defense
And while the U.S. military is not getting any easier to supply, in the future, it may operate in environments that pose even greater challenges. For starters, the U.S. is unlikely to be facing small, dispersed opponents without an air force, but highly capable near peers who can pressure American supply lines at great distance and scale. Furthermore, potential theaters include the Pacific region, which is vast and strategically complex. The “INDOPACOM” region covers half of the Earth’s surface with limited locations for bases, creating a “tyranny of distance.” Lastly, many advanced technologies can make it harder to hide or defend supply lines. For example, modern observation satellites and drones are capable of illuminating the entire battlefield, which can make easy work of uncovering supply lines. Once supply lines are discovered, $200 remote-controlled pieces of plastic can sever them from afar.
We really have to look at [logistics] through a different lens and not just use the lessons for Europe to pull them over to the Pacific. – General Edward M. Daly
The DoD and Congress are taking action
In response to escalating vulnerabilities in logistics operations, the U.S. Marine Corps and Army are re-training for new environments and Congress is pointing out strategic vulnerabilities, such as the Navy’s cumbersome strategy for storing and transporting fuel.
While these changes are important, we believe they won’t lead to success unless paired with new tools. We are convinced the U.S. military must consider moving away from planning its logistics on whiteboards, which is a slow and rigid process, and adopt dynamic software that reveals our broad, and complex, supply chain ecosystem. This becomes increasingly important as experts expect data-enabled decisions to decide future battles and decision-making loops grow faster. We also believe the U.S. military should prioritize limiting logistics tails to fight the tyranny of distance. This might include replacing today’s battlefield generators, which barely run at 35% efficiency and demand constant resupply.
Logistics data is an unrealized weapon and critical vulnerability in its current state – Leigh E. Method, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Logistics
The U.S. Army was the first to take a strong stance on logistics modernization in late 2022 when Army Secretary Christine Wormuth tasked two Generals to collaborate with commercial sector to develop requirements and technology. In comparison, the commercial sector has achieved great feats in addressing logistics challenges, like Amazon fine-tuning its operations to deliver 60% of purchases in top metros the same day they were ordered in 2023. Since the Army took that stance, other organizations have followed. The Defense Logistics Agency announced that it wants to replace its self-described “antiquated system” and the Office of the Secretary of Defense published a new logistics IT strategy in 2024.
We believe these efforts have highlighted four key areas where the DoD needs new tools. These include advanced power generation, demand reduction, adaptive planning, and autonomous systems.
Four areas where startups can help with logistics
- Advanced power—Fuel is one of the main things the DoD moves around, which itself uses fuel. We believe that if the U.S. can innovate on these power sources, say, with advanced nuclear power, it might seriously reduce the need to ship diesel. The DoD is no stranger to nuclear microreactors, as they’ve been safely powering submarines with them for decades. Nuclear reactors can generate so much power in such a small form that they can create large amounts of synthetic fuels or purify water at the edge, further reducing the logistics tail.
- Demand reduction—In addition to solving for power supply, the DoD could also look to reduce fuel demand. For example, electric vehicles eliminate the need to move fuel altogether and can be stealthier due to their heat signature and noise. We believe that electrification will happen slowly, so in the meantime, hybrid vehicles can better conserve energy, as can engines and equipment that automatically shut off when idle.
- Autonomous systems—Another approach is to take humans out of the logistics equation with autonomous vehicles for sea, land, and air. These systems would be used to transport food, munitions, and fuel, amongst other things and could even be prepositioned.
- Adaptive planning—We believe moving away from whiteboards and excel and towards software will offer greater visibility and adaptability to logistics planners. Such a platform could enable “self-healing” supply webs that reduce attack surface area during contested logistics, as the U.S. Naval Institute has written, or increase resiliency when sudden changes occur.
We believe new technology is needed in an increasingly contested logistics environment
We believe that logistics is a cornerstone of military operations, but U.S. logistics operations are falling behind as potential future conflicts grow more complex. The U.S. military recognizes this and is taking steps to identify and address the most pressing gaps. We believe many of these gaps will require new tools, like software to optimize how materiel is moved around the world, and hardware to shorten those logistics tails. We believe the commercial sector will be a valuable partner in this transition, particularly startups, which are innovating across many vectors the DoD wants to overhaul. If you’re a startup or founder in this space, we’d love to hear from you.
* At normal operating levels, an Arleigh Burke class destroyer burns 24,000 gallons of fuel a day and can hold 450,000 gallons of fuel, implying 19 days of fuel on board.